Poisson Distribution Disease Cluster Problem


The following is a Poisson Distribution problem from the 11th edition of the Triola Elementary Statistics textbook. I restated the problem in text so the search engines would be able to find it. The solution to the problem is in a JPEG at bottom of post. If you consider the answer to be clear and helpful, please consider a modest donation of 50 cents.

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Disease Cluster Problem:  Neuroblastoma, a rare form of malignant tumor, occurs in 11 children in a million, so its probability is 0.000011. Four cases of neuroblastoma occurred in Oak Park, Illinois, which had 12,429 children.

Find the probability that the number of neuroblastoma cases in a group of 12,429 children is 0 or 1.

Poisson Probability Distribution used to predict number of childhood cancer cases in a region

Calculus students might be interested to know that the Poisson distribution can be derived from a fairly straightforward differential equation based on the fact that a Poisson probability in a time interval is proportional to the time interval!



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